Updated TruthTeller Battleground Electoral Map & Forecast

Here’s our current projected map and EV forecast. At 375 EVs, we’re a bit above the consensus, due to our positive view in Georgia and Iowa. Enjoy!

2016-evmap-002-dy1023-finalAs far as the new swing-voter model test is concerned, we’ve now reached a major milestone. We had hypothesized that in this weird election year, the majority of late-deciders would go for Clinton. Through three weeks of testing since the first Presidential debate, that is happening to a degree well beyond my expectations.

Using the daily pollling averages of the twelve key Battleground states, we have determined that in these specific states

  • Johnson has lost 22% of his support
  • The Green Party has lost (so far) only 4% of their support
  • 13% (so far) of the undecided voters have made up their minds.

Drumroll, please: all of these losses have gone to Clinton. Trump is at exactly the support level he enjoyed on September 26.

We’ll continue tracking the changes in the 3rd party/undecideds cohorts every day. But at this point, we are sufficiently confident in our tracking math to say that Clinton will win every Battleground state on November 8th, most by a substantial margin.

We can also say with confidence that this will be a so-called wave election, allowing the Democrats to make aggressive gains in the Senate and House. But due to the difficulty in predicting the splits in the expected surge of last-day votes, we won’t know how many House seats Clinton’s coattails can flip until November 9th.

I feel compelled to add a footnote. It’s clear from our measurements that Jill Stein’s Green Party could hurt Clinton’s House push if the party members fail to vote for the Democratic House candidate in their district. Vote Green if you want to send a message, but be sure to vote for the folks who can help Clinton implement your agenda.

 

Your one-month-to-go reality check

With 31 days until November 8th, the numbers predicted here in various posts over the summer and early fall are basically looking good.

The National race

Clinton has re-established and reinforced her lead over the summer. Before the party Conventions she was leading by 5 points. After the Convention ups, downs, and bounces, including a stretch of self-inflicted wounds by Trump, and Clinton’s deplorable error, the two had seemingly fought each other to a 1 or two point difference. Then, just eleven days ago, she performed strikingly well in the first debate, while Trump was Trump, and about 50 million people saw him be the odious bully he is for the first time. Very bad. The result in the national polls has been a surge for Clinton, to a solid 6 to 7 point lead. Very bad, indeed, Mr. Twitbag.

The Battleground

In the thirteen (as we defined them months ago) 2016 Battleground States, Clinton is now putting serious distance between her and the business failure. Trump acknowledged as much late this week as he publicly gave up his much-touted Rust Belt strategy to focus in the remaining days on Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado. Yes, reader, you read correctly, and yes, it is a stupid strategy.

The Ground Game

On the ground, the Clinton Team has the Trump folks out-gunned by at least five to one in the Battleground states, no matter how you cut it. Typically, a well-run ground game in the final month can boost a candidate 1 or 2 percent in the national polls, and more in the swing states where the actual fighting takes place. No model reflects this added percentage for Clinton, but you may count on it showing up in the final tallies.

The Electoral Vote

The consensus among the quality forecasting sites says Clinton has over 330 EVs to Trump’s roughly 200. Not quite as ebullient as my much higher prediction in the pre-“deplorables” days, I’m happy to admit. But I still expect to see Clinton top 360 EVs or come very close.

The new Truthteller swing vote prediction model

As mentioned in a recent post, your wily Truthteller has taken on the problem unique to this 2016 Election, namely, two more or less equally distrusted candidates, two third parties with significant national followings, and a larger-than-normal contingent of undecided voters.

I’ll be posting on this project this weekend, so only provide the briefest update here, as a teaser. I was able to have the new model ready for testing the day of the first debate. Tracking aggregated Battleground state polls results each day since, the new model is working better than even I expected. It shows Clinton’s surging strength in a simple and clear way. It appears to show that her final vote tally in these key states will, in fact, be stronger than the conventional predictive tools conclude.

What lies ahead?

Leads after the debates tend to be stable, so it’s unlikely we’ll see Clinton fall back to less than a 5% lead in these final days. To the contrary, our model suggests she’ll grow her current 6 percent to as much as a consensus 8 or even 9 percent by Election Eve.

We can now be reasonably confident that Clinton will take all eleven of the traditional Battleground states, and has an even-money chance at taking Arizona. too. Georgia is going to be close, but my gut tells me the Clinton Team won’t be putting the time and money into the state to carry it. (This is a much more important question than all but a few realize: With its sixteen Electoral Votes, large educated white and growing minorities demographic, Georgia is on the verge of becoming the “Southern Ohio”. I’m arguing for the Dems to make an aggressive move now rather than later to make this a Progressive bedrock state for the future.)

Since five of the critically-close Senate seats are in the Battleground states, a strong win across the Battleground board could be just the push needed to win control of the Senate, by securing Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. These wins would give the Dems and their Independent partners working control of the Senate. But the same Clinton surge in the final four weeks should mean victories in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, too, giving her a 53 seat majority. (Ohio is out of reach, as is Florida, barring a major push against Rubio.)

Adding even one or two percentage points to Clinton’s national totals on Election Day has a vitally important bonus effect: for each such added percent, the Dems should flip four to six additional House seats, even in such a polarized, Gerrymandered House as we have this year. The experts are currently expecting Clinton to flip at least fifteen of the 30 House seats she needs to take control in 2017 and throw out the Ryan/Tea Party partnership that has caused national gridlock these past six and more years.

But my model says Clinton may add a total of as much as three or even four points to her national percentage tally when all the votes are counted in November. That could mean flipping 16 or more additional House Seats. Hello Progressivism; goodbye obstructionism.

Team Clinton’s massive advantage in the ground game should play a powerful role in flipping the key six or seven Senate seats and also taking House seats away for the Republicans. “Down ballot” means nothing to Trump, since he never intended to actually govern. But it means volumes to Democrats who’ve had to watch the Obama agenda stymied by a Republican Congress determined to block any program to help the country.

So far as the Electoral College is concerned, if my predictions hold, and Clinton also takes Georgia and, just possibly, Mississippi, too, then she’d top 370 EVs, a crushing defeat for the right wing.

Takeaways for the most important election in U.S. History since 1932

We’ll know more of the details in the days following the second debate. But we know enough already to be confident of a significant Clinton win. What we do not know yet is the extent to which her success will also be a Progressive victory.

To be a truly meaningful, historically profound Progressive win will depend on how many House and Senate seats can be flipped. This number will determine Clinton’s ability to execute the comprehensive Progressive agenda she and Senator Sanders have put forth.

It is imperative therefore that every Progressive,Democratic, Independent patriot, and you Moderate Republicans, too, vote for the Democrat down ballot candidates in every state, not just the Battlegrounds.

Winning a state’s Electoral Votes decides who shall be President; winning the House and Senate seats decides which Presidents shall be great ones.

Battleground update — Deplorable results

The polls taken just after Clinton made her derisive “deplorables” comments are in, and they show a net two to four point reduction in her national lead over Trump. I’m aware that the media bobble-heads and many commentators insist that the “tightening” is mostly due to her team’s clumsy handling of her recent health problems; they’re kidding themselves. Most people in this often mindless country, like most people in every other country, have some sort of Underdog Gene, which causes them to immediately sympathize with little people who are disdained by the powerful. Clinton is now paying the price of invoking this powerful irrational impulse on the part of millions. Worse, unlike the health silliness, the negative effects of her words will not go away.

Let me be clear: I’m not judging the truth or overreach of her characterization of the Deplorables. I don’t care, since the greater truth is that truth has little to do with determining the winner of an election. The question before us is not whether she was justified in insulting (from their point of view) about 25 million lower-middle class white Americans, but how she can cope with the aftermath.

If that’s even possible.

Like the rest of her hard-core supporters, I’m struggling to think how she might recover her solid lead going into the debates. Failing that, what are the odds of Trump saying or doing something to cut his own polling numbers?

I’ll make my suggestions in a day or so. In the interim, I’ve been forced to amend my Battleground forecast from the last update one month ago.

Estimating the worst case for Clinton

Since so many Clinton supporters are panicking at the moment, I’ll show the worst case Electoral College scenario, and my own expected worst-case result for Clinton if I had to “call” the November vote today.

2016-evmap-002-dy0915-revd

Notice that I think Clinton will win 272 EVs minimum, including New Hampshire. Even if Trump wins all other swing states excepting Virginia and Pennsylvania (which polling indicates are probably safe for Clinton), she still reaches 272 EVs. Yes, the race in New Hampshire is tight, and in the worst case scenario she could well lose here. But it’s a safe bet that she will win at least one of the other nine Battlegrounds, and any one will put her over 269 EVs.

To repeat, I am not predicting the final EV tally will be this close. But the earlier forecasts of mine are not likely either, barring some Trump blow-up in the debates, or an improbable string of positive Clinton news that would let her rebuild her polling lead in the key Battleground states. For example, learning Colin Powell’s true, blunt appraisal of Trump will make many Republicans on the fence drop to the Clinton side, or, if not, at least keep them there, their nose safely up in the air when they finally decide to stay home or vote Libertarian. Similarly, Trump’s failure to reveal his tax returns will surely help Clinton among the white voters she is having trouble persuading. Possibly the same could be said of the recently reported Trump financial scams and secret deals, but with just seven weeks to go, that would require aggressive follow-up by the media, and we’re probably unwise to assume they’ll do their job.

But she, and we who support her, cannot count on luck. It’s clear that this election is the least predictable one in at least five decades, not just due to Trump, but to the potentially major variable that more damaging emails will be leaked between now and early November. Or that Clinton may fail to go after Trump aggressively in the debate, calling him out as an adolescent bully and wholesale liar. The chances are good, and scary, that she’ll try and play the debates safe. Trying to protect a lead that can evaporate with a single leaked email would be ill-advised. Correct that: it would be stupid, and a betrayal of the millions who want her in the White House, warts and all.

Two additional well-intended, potentially disastrous complications

This election is a forecaster’s nightmare thanks to the two third party candidates. As of now, they’re providing undecided voters with a sanctimonious place to hide from the great challenge to our country’s future posed by the Trump candidacy.

Your Truthteller happens to be a specialist in global warming mitigation, but is not supporting Stein. She has a very real possibility of “Naderizing” Clinton. Even if Clinton wins the Electoral Vote contest, Stein will probably cut the Democratic popular vote total by two or three points. This will result IMO in the failure to flip at least one Senate seat to the Dems, and likely limit the success of the House take-back effort. Those who vote green to “send a message” or simply feel superior will be setting back the very cause many thousands of us have spent decades working for.

For those angry progressives voting for the Libertarian ticket, they need to think very hard about the kind of Supreme Court resulting from a Trump victory. If he is elected, we can forget any hope for a very long time of reversing Citizens United, securing women’s rights and income equality, reforming the criminal justice system, and a dozen other crucial legislative goals. I am a radical progressive, but I can recognize the disaster facing the millions of Americans who make up the 99% if Trump wins.

The time for moving the progressive cause forward faster is after we have stopped the Republicans and their blowhard buffoon from dragging the nation back fifty years into the past.

Battleground update — Trump’s mud slide

Donald Trump’s amazingly inept “campaign” of mud-slinging, off-the-cuff threats, insults, lies, and incoherent rants has done what no Presidential run in history has ever been able to accomplish. In just two weeks, he’s managed to lose some 50 to 60 Electoral Votes. He’s personally flipping battleground and even solidly “red” state EVs to the Democrats at a rate of about four a day.

With 12 weeks to go before Election Day, Trump’s already facing an electoral defeat not seen in this country in decades. Can he reverse his negative trend? It’s an open question. Going by the national and battleground state polls, the bleeding is serious.

2016 EVMAP 001 - DY0812 REVd
Map note — Base map courtesy 270towin.com. The base (“consensus”) map for this update post may be accessed at Consensus as of 20160812. Our updated Truthteller forecast map is at Truthteller November Forecast as of 20160814. You can share our maps as you wish or modify either to create your own analysis. Enjoy!

Here are the highlights as of today, Saturday, August 13th, as reflected in our updated Battleground Scorecard map:

  • The biggest takeaway of the past two weeks is the least dramatic one on our map, namely the unshakable blocs of dark and medium blue in the West, North Central states, and the Northeast. Clinton held 216 Electoral Votes four weeks ago, and has kept them all, while adding the ten EVs of Wisconsin as it moved from medium to dark blue. With just 44 more votes needed to reach 270, Clinton has moved from great shape to even better shape.
  • The most quantitatively significant change is the gradual solidifying of Clinton’s leads in the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. The thirty-eight Electoral votes of these three states are vital to Republican hopes for reaching 270 votes; should they all fall to the Democrats, as we now predict they will, then the Presidential contest is effectively over.
  • But the real shocker that has emerged in the past two short weeks is the potentially devastating Clinton blowout in the Sun Belt. From Arizona in the West to the Southeastern states of North Carolina, Georgia, and, potentially, South Carolina, the Clinton juggernaut threatens to effectively flip much of the very core of the southern Conservative stronghold that has anchored Republican strategies for decades. With a total of fifty-one EVs unexpectedly in play, Clinton could be locking up not just the 2016 race, but setting the table for a strong re-election bid in 2020.
  • The selection of Gov. Mike Pence as Trump’s running mate appears to have had the unintended side effect of putting Indiana in play. The Dems have a strong chance of not merely nabbing the open Senate seat with Evan Bayh’s bid, but possibly taking the state’s eleven EVs in the bargain.

In addition to these major developments, Republican weaknesses in Missouri, Kansas and Utah are emerging. These local problems would probably have been minor had Trump not been selected. Instead, the antipathy by more than half of voters to Trump, with his name at the top of every Republican ticket in the country, could well make these and similar local difficulties much harder to overcome.

Our summary of the current situation will be augmented with details from our updated forecast over the coming week or so — provided the Donald does not run reasoned discussion of the campaigns off the rails again, with a new crazy claim or unsubstantiated conspiracy theory.

For now, here’s our updated November forecast:

Clinton/Kaine – 411 Electoral Votes

Trump/Pence – 127 EVs

So, reader, you tell me: is the “battle” for the Battleground States already over?

To this Truthteller, it certainly appears so.

More from the front lines of the Battleground states

A quick follow-up to yesterday’s Battleground analysis — please ignore our smug expression:

The New York Times this morning published its confirmation of our reasoning regarding Trump’s thin chances in November. The Times also acknowledged that Georgia and Arizona are especially vulnerable this year, thanks in no small part to Trump’s racist and anti-Hispanic jibes. That’s important: even should Trump miraculously win Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, he’d go down to defeat if the Dems flipped either Arizona or Georgia.

But Trump is not going to win all four of those vote-rich traditional swing states. He’s behind in all four as I write, and his insistence on re-running his Primary campaign shows no ability to attract voters other than the disgruntled whites who already support him.

The Times also reminded us of Trump’s lack of a ground game, and his campaign budget shortfall. We have three months of door-to-door, hand-to-hand campaigning in these four of the five traditional most hotly contested states. (As noted in our post yesterday, Virginia has been all but conceded to Clinton by the Trump campaign.)

The Clinton campaign ground game is extremely well funded and well organized, with thousands of experienced staff and volunteers in each of the states at issue. This core of supporters won all four of these states for Obama in 2008, and all but North Carolina in 2012. They have the edge again in North Carfolina this year, thanks to the stupidity of the right-wing state officials, coupled with a growing Black base. Trump’s deep unpopularity with the large number of educated whites and other professionals makes his challenge even tougher.

A side note on the missing Trump bump:

If you blinked last week, you missed it, because it’s already over. He managed to get even with Clinton early in the week, but by today, Sunday, the accumulating momentum of the marvelously produced Dem convention, with its panoply of lucid, sincere, patriotic speakers, has crushed his little pimple. The three best polling sites for a “snapshot” or “who’s on top now?” view all have Clinton on top again, by as many as six points. Nate Silver’s 538.com “Now” projection shows Clinton’s national lead today at thirteen-plus! This, before Clinton’s post-convention bounce has even had a chance to show it’s strength, relative to Trump’s.

OK, OK. We know that the convention bounces are transitory, so let’s not make too much of them. We also know that the gloomy Republican convention was shoved even more deeply into the shadows by the stunning, warm, optimistic Democratic show. But a few weeks from now, people will be talking about Rio, and will have forgotten the contrast between would-be Dictator Donald, and Hillary, President Obama, Joe the Scranton guy (!), Michelle (!!), Bill, Chelsea, and Khizr Kahn, the father of Captain Humayan Khan.

So, yes, we need to be realistic about the limited value of polls this far out from October. But we should also remind ourselves that this election is unique in recent American history. A big challenge for Clinton was and is to persuade a doubting electorate that she deserves their trust. The performance of her party in Philadelphia was a huge step forward toward this key objective. The male pundits tend not to place much stock in such emotional gains, but the women take them to heart, I predict, and will quietly add the scenes over the last two weeks to the long list of Trump insults, adolescent anger, and outbursts of sheer stupidity we’ve all witnessed for a year.

And none of us who saw Mr. Kahn’s heartfelt speech, with its direct challenge to Trump’s very humanity, will forget it. This humble, grieving couple managed to distill the choice between a con artist and a dedicated leader more clearly than any ten hours of TV ads and pretty video biographies ever could do.

The Truthteller Battleground Map – 7/30/2016

Both conventions have ended, and we can finally begin seriously tracking the likely state-by-state electoral results we expect to see come November 8th.

Below is our up-to-date electoral map, showing each state’s winner-take-all Electoral College votes. You’ll see we’ve used color coding to show which states are solidly or safely secure for each main candidate, and the states or Congressional Districts that are “in play”, meaning potentially winnable by either main candidate.

2016 EVMAP 001 - DY0729 FINAL

Map note — Base map courtesy 270towin.com.  Use this site to try out your own electoral combinations and share them with your friends. Access your Truthteller’s map (minus our totals section) at Truthteller’s map. You can modify any state result you wish in our map to see how it changes. Enjoy!

The totals section

Unlike the map graphics in the big name election forecasting sites, we’ve provided summary-level estimates for each of the seven color-coded state categories. We’ve also shown the current consensus estimate among the top quality forecasting sites, and contrasted their estimates with our own.

Our strikingly different take on the so-called “swing” or “Battleground” states

This 2016 election cycle is highly unusual when compared to previous presidential year contests. Our proprietary Delphic Election Forecasting (DEF) methodology adds five normally “red” states to the battleground, based on continuing long-term demographic trends and the particulars of the 2016 race. We also break out the second Congressional District of Maine, whose single electoral vote is counted (by state law) separately from Maine’s other three votes. Why trouble over a single vote? Because, in a tight contest, this single, swing-y vote can become a tie-breaker, or a tie-maker. (Nebraska’s similarly counted two votes in the greater Omaha area are not broken out in our table, since they appear to be reliably Republican this year.) An Electoral College tie of 269 to 269 votes would throw the election into the House of Representatives, where Paul Ryan would swallow hard, then award the Presidency to Trump.

So much for our additions to the list of battleground states and districts. Next, we exclude the conventionally defined swing states of Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado, all of which appear to be safely in the Clinton column for 2016.

This leaves us with a total of twelve battleground states plus the Maine 2nd District. It means we’re focusing our analysis in states the national media folks don’t even mention. This is leading us to several novel hypotheses and observations. For example, our DEF method indicates that, thanks to the destructive Trump candidacy, the Republicans could be in serious trouble in five formerly “safe” red states. Of these, Georgia, with its 16 votes, is a potential deal-breaker for Trumpsters. Even more important, should Georgia fall to the Dems, there is a strong probability that Mississippi and, yes, South Carolina, would fall as well: the underlying voting dynamics of all three states are essentially similar.

Some interesting results so far

Notice that even if Trump won all the 34 votes of the only two true toss-up states (plus the Maine 2nd District) he’d be at 225 votes, still far short of the 270 needed to win.

That’s discouraging for those supporting the Orange Mega Screw-up candidate, but with the map and summary tables, it’s easy to see that his situation is actually much more desperate. Let’s suppose he was able to take Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes out of the Clinton column. He’d still be losing, with 245 votes to her total of 293!

Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and the legendary Ohio, and still loses the election!

Whaaa?

The answer is of course Florida, with its 29 votes. Those votes would get Trump to 274 votes, allowing him to barely eak out a win. Not a major revelation, your Truthteller readily concedes, since most of the TV and print election commentators will tell you that Trump simply must win Florida to have a winning chance. But none (that we’re aware of) will add that even if he can manage to win in Florida, he must also win all the other major “Battleground” states: Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. That is extremely unlikely, given what we’re seeing in those states.

OK, then, so what if he lost Florida (as current polling shows is most likely). Couldn’t he make up his 25 vote shortfall by picking off more of the “leaning Clinton” states?

The short answer is “Not likely.” He’d need New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada, plus Colorado, to give him 25 votes exactly, and reach the magic 270. His chances of taking all four of those states are probably less than five percent. To make the challenge even harder, Colorado is well on the way to becoming reliably blue. (Readers should note again that,along with Colorado, former swing states Virginia and Wisconsin are this year safely in Clinton’s column.)

Looks tough for the Republicans, as you can see. But, looking back at our newly redefined list of 2016 battleground states, if the Dems manage to flip Arizona, with its eleven votes, the Trump cause becomes hopeless. Crazy? Perhaps in past cycles, but this year Arizona is definitely in play, thanks to a weak McCain trying to distance himself from Trump, Trump’s odious anti-Hispanic slurs, strong Latino registrations, and Tim Kaine’s total likability, public service in Honduras, and fluent Spanish. All this even before the Dems reached out so effectively to white Republican women and suburbanites in their Convention. Think rich Phoenix; think Tucson.

We’re seeing the formation of a new, blue, Latino bloc anchored by New Mexico, and adding Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona, with the last three adding up to twenty-six votes for Clinton.

This is only one of the several interesting sets of electoral vote combinations we might see as the candidates fight their way to the November showdown. Another is a deep South potentially trending blue this year, and, very likely in years to come–this would require the redrawing of the strategic map of every professional national campaign consultant in the country.

More to come

The end of the conventions frenzy means that we’ll soon be able to see which campaign gained the most benefit over the other in the past two weeks. But polling results for post-election “bumps” are famously unreliable, so we’ll need to wait until roughly mid-August to have sufficient polling to begin making serious poll-based projections. This is especially true on the state-by-state level, where polling has so far been sparse.

Our DEF method does not rely on polling data, which is why we were able to project 347 electoral votes come November for Clinton in mid-June.

But we respect the polls-based work of, especially, Dr. Wang (of Princeton), Nate Silver of the 538.com site, the Upshot team at the New York Times, and the Reuters/IPSOS operation. From mid-August on, we’ll be daily comparing our evolving DEF decision array to all these polling experts. It’s not some sort of silly contest: we’ll be trying to sniff out the hidden situations in the key states where the polls may not be telling us the full story.

We use the polls, but we are mindful of the potentially hugely significant hidden trends that polls simply cannot “see”. The likely turnout of African-American voters in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi is an example of a potentially winning tide for Clinton. The emergence of the new Hispanic bloc described above is another new twist in our traditional view of the American electorate. And no poll is going to inform us in advance of the potential “silent rebellion” in Republican and many conservative-leaning Democrat households, as white wives and Moms show their utter contempt for Trump and his spineless Republican puppets by going into ballot boxes throughout the battleground states, smile, and vote to cancel out the Trump vote of their blustering, bullying, or just plain thoughtless husbands.

We’ll modify our electoral vote projection map as warranted over the coming three months. In coming posts, We’ll also answer your questions about the campaigns, and our DEF analytical approach.

Introducing the Battleground Scorecard for 2016

Our Battleground Scorecard is a handy updated snapshot of our estimated final results for the Presidential race.

We’ll be unveiling our new forecasting tool and methodology soon, but we thought many might like to simply know the November results as we see them today.

Remember, the race is to win at least 270 of the 538 total Electoral Votes, not to emerge as the most popular candidate. Understand too that the contest is settled already in all but 17 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. EG, Clinton is not going to win in Montana, and Trump is not going to win in Maryland. The final result in 34 states has, like it or not, effectively been decided.

Adding up these decided states on each side, going into Election Day, November 8th, Clinton will have 201 “safe” votes, and Trump will have 100.

This leaves 237 Electoral Votes seemingly up for grabs. Meaning either candidate can win, surely.

Not really.

As of today, we estimate that:

  • 63 votes are in four states that will almost certainly go to Clinton
  • 62 votes are in five states that will very likely be won by Clinton
  • 21 votes will be in two states where Clinton has the best chance of winning
  • the remaining 91 votes in six states may all go to Trump, but that is far from probable right now.

If we’re right, then Clinton should win at least 347 Electoral votes to Trump’s total of possibly 191.

But at least 38 of the projected Trump votes are in three states where he is showing serious weakness. Meaning Clinton’s final total estimate as of today may well reach or even exceed 385, a dominating, crushing, utterly complete win over the blustering faux-Republican.

Again, the takeaway for today is Clinton with at least 347, and Trump with maybe as few as 153 votes.

So, it’s game over, right?

In one sense, of course. The Democrats will retain the White House, and if our estimates hold will probably take back the Senate.

But in the larger sense, no! It’s anything but over! In every state, the settled as well as the background states, there are full tickets of candidates. In this year, unlike any other in our lifetime, the Democratic Party with its progressive and independent allies has the opportunity to dethrone the Republicans from their do-nothing control of our government.

It’s vital therefore to campaign hard for every vote in every district in every state, be it red or blue. Our concerted effort this year, 2016, can see the end of the McConnell no-machine in the Senate, and can even derail the Ryan Express-to-the-nineteenth-century in the House. It is unlikely we will get another opportunity on this historic scale to end the economic and political injustices imposed on the middle and poor classes by the Republican administration and Congresses over the past two decades.

The place to fight for the middle class, for jobs, for women, for minority rights, for all those who are perceived as threats to the Republican leaders and rank and file is not in big rallies, not in the streets, and not with boycotts. The place to fight is in the polling booth, and the day of battle is fast approaching.